MOGADISHU, Somalia—Growing uncertainty surrounds the future of the Ankara Declaration, a diplomatic framework signed on December 12, 2024, and brokered by Turkey to reach a comprehensive agreement between Somalia and Ethiopia by June 2025.

Despite this timeline’s urgency and regional significance, both governments have remained notably silent on the status of the talks, fueling speculation of a stalled process.

The Ankara Declaration was initially hailed as a breakthrough in easing tensions between the two nations after Ethiopia signed a controversial Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Somaliland on January 1, 2024.

The MoU, which grants Ethiopia access to the Red Sea via the port of Berbera, was denounced by Somalia as a clear violation of its sovereignty. However, the Ankara agreement made no reference to this MoU—an omission that now appears to be one of the major faults undermining the process.

Red Sea dispute remains core obstacle

According to sources familiar with the negotiations, a key sticking point remains unresolved: Somalia’s firm opposition to granting Ethiopia direct access to the Red Sea. Somali officials have instead proposed offering Ethiopia limited access to an Indian Ocean port, such as Hobyo or Kismayo, which they argue would address Ethiopia’s logistical needs without compromising Somalia’s territorial integrity.

Even this offer has proven problematic. Ethiopia is reportedly seeking sovereign control or long-term operational rights, while Somalia insists that any arrangement must preserve Somali sovereignty. Under Somalia’s proposal, Ethiopia would be permitted to use or rent port facilities under Somali regulation, rather than obtaining complete control.

“There’s no political space in Somalia for handing over a strategic port or strip of coastline to Ethiopia,” a senior Somali official told Caasimada Online on condition of anonymity. “Public sentiment is overwhelmingly against it. At most, we are talking about a time-limited access agreement, tightly regulated, and fully under Somali jurisdiction.”

Negotiations losing momentum amid silence

Sources close to the talks describe the negotiations as increasingly stagnant. Despite multiple rounds of high-level meetings in Ankara and elsewhere, no significant progress has been made.

“The discussions have become more ceremonial than substantive,” one diplomatic source told Caasimada Online. “The parties appear more interested in managing appearances than addressing the core issues.”

Adding to the opacity is Turkey’s silence, which has not issued any recent updates on the talks it helped initiate. Analysts suggest Ankara’s quietness may signal growing frustration with the lack of meaningful movement or possibly a recalibration of its role as mediator.

Regional experts warn that failure to reach a deal could have serious consequences for the already fragile Horn of Africa. “Somalia and Ethiopia are central to the region’s stability,” said Dr. Ahmed Ismail, a political analyst in Mogadishu.

“If this process collapses, it risks triggering renewed tensions, undermining security, and creating opportunities for foreign powers to assert influence,” Dr. Ahmed said.

Ethiopia, the most populous landlocked country in the world, has long sought diversified access to maritime trade routes. Its current dependence on Djibouti has pushed it to explore alternatives, including the controversial MoU with Somaliland. Somalia, however, views Ethiopia’s maritime ambitions, particularly through unauthorized deals, as an existential threat to its sovereignty and unity.

With the June 2025 deadline approaching and little to show for months of diplomatic engagement, many observers now doubt whether the Ankara communiqué will achieve its intended outcome. Without transparency, trust-building, and genuine compromise, the ambitious roadmap could soon be added to the long list of failed peace efforts in the Horn of Africa.