WASHINGTON, USA — Recent remarks by a senior White House official expressing concern over Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s political priorities mark a troubling shift in Washington’s perception of its longtime ally in the Horn of Africa.
While the diplomatic language remains measured, the message is unmistakable: U.S. confidence in President Mohamud is waning.
Since returning to office in 2022, Mohamud has placed political reform at the center of his agenda—notably, a transition to one-person, one-vote elections. While some see the initiative as a step toward democratic normalization, others view it as a means of consolidating presidential power and marginalizing Somalia’s federal states.
His administration’s push for constitutional amendments has deepened these fears, prompting tensions with regional authorities such as Puntland and Jubaland.
These political maneuvers, U.S. officials now warn, are diverting focus from Somalia’s most pressing threat: the resurgence of the al-Qaeda-linked militant group al-Shabab.
Why does this shift in U.S. posture matter?
The United States has long been Somalia’s most significant security partner—providing drone support, military training, and diplomatic backing.
In the early phase of Mohamud’s presidency, this partnership contributed to battlefield successes against al-Shabab in central Somalia. However, as internal disputes escalated and federal-regional cooperation broke down, military coordination began to stall.
Now, al-Shabab is regaining ground. In 2024 and early 2025, the group launched renewed offensives in Middle Shabelle, Lower Shabelle, and Hiraan and even attempted to assassinate Mohamud in a brazen March 2025 attack.
With the African Union’s ATMIS mission transitioning to the underfunded AUSSOM, the Somali government’s ability to lead a unified response is more critical than ever.
When U.S. officials say Mohamud’s emphasis on political centralization is “hindering progress on counterterrorism,” it’s not just a critique—it’s a signal that Washington is reevaluating how closely it can align with Somalia’s current leadership.
What could the consequences be?
A fraying relationship with the United States could have wide-ranging implications. First, it may weaken financial and operational support for Somalia’s security forces, particularly the elite U.S.-trained Danab Brigade.
Second, it could push Somalia to deepen its ties with alternative partners like Turkey and Qatar—states that have already expanded their military and economic presence in the country.
Domestically, the perception that President Mohamud is losing the confidence of key Western backers could embolden opposition groups and further complicate the already fraught effort to implement national elections. It may also encourage federal states to act independently, eroding national unity.
Most dangerously, this loss of alignment risks creating a security vacuum that al-Shabab could exploit—something the group has done repeatedly in Somalia’s recent past.
In short, the United States’ loss of confidence in President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud is not just a diplomatic warning—it’s a strategic inflection point. If Somalia’s leadership cannot realign its focus toward inclusive governance and effective counterterrorism, the consequences could be dire: diminished support, increased political fragmentation, and a resurgence of extremist violence. The window to course-correct is narrowing.